This week, the global financial market is set to face the "big test" of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

In the early morning of this Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for September, and the market generally expects it to start a rate-cutting cycle, while there is still disagreement on whether it will cut rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points at once.

According to the CME "FedWatch" data released in the early morning of September 16, Beijing time, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 52%.

Recently, boosted by factors such as the imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have remained active.

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Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett is bullish on gold to $3,000 per ounce.

In addition, the stickiness of inflation in the United States has raised market concerns about the risk of a second round of inflation in the country.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is imminent, and in the early morning of this Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision for September.

As the first rate cut to start the rate-cutting cycle, the exact magnitude will be revealed soon, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points.

The latest forecast by traders suggests that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points this week is evenly matched.

According to the CME "FedWatch" data updated in the early morning of September 16, Beijing time, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 48%, and the probability of cutting rates by 50 basis points is 52%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by November is 30.2%, by 75 basis points is 50.5%, and by 100 basis points is 19.3%.

Cui Rong, the chief analyst of overseas research at CITIC Securities, said that against the background of slowing inflation but with flaws, and cooling employment but with resilience in the United States, the Federal Reserve is still in a "risk management" rather than a "crisis response" decision-making framework.

While taking care of the labor market, it also needs to take into account the price environment that still has stickiness and try to minimize the risk of inflation coming back.

She judged that, on the whole, the Federal Reserve has the conditions for rate cuts, but there is no need for rapid rate cuts.

It is expected to cut rates three times within the year, each time by 25 basis points.

"For the Federal Reserve, cutting rates by 25 basis points in September and cutting rates by 50-75 basis points throughout the year is a neutral judgment."

Yan Xiang, the chief economist of Huafu Securities, said that the downside risk of the U.S. economy is still relatively controllable.

If there is an excessive rate cut, it is easy to trigger a second round of inflation risk.

Regarding the allocation of major asset classes, Yan Xiang said that in the context of fully factoring in the expectation of rate cuts, U.S. Treasury rates may be volatile in the short term, and the U.S. stock market is in the stage of digesting high valuations in the short term, and long-term rate cuts are still beneficial to the U.S. stock market; the U.S. dollar may benefit from the resilience of the U.S. economy, and the downside is limited.

The risk of a second round of inflation in the United States still exists.

The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor last week showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August, showing signs of continued deceleration of inflation in the United States, but it is still higher than the 2% long-term inflation target set by the Federal Reserve.

It is worth noting that the increase in the core CPI in the United States in August was larger month-on-month; it rose by 3.2% year-on-year, which was higher than expected.

The stickiness of inflation in the United States has raised market concerns about the risk of a second round of inflation in the country.

Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that compared with the previous two rounds of soft landing cycles, the U.S. economy will welcome the start of this round of the rate-cutting cycle at the highest momentum level before the rate cut.

And from a broader perspective, without a significant economic slowdown as a "trigger condition," the recession concerns formed by rising unemployment lack support.

This also proves that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may trigger reflation, which may not be so far away.

In addition, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently said that the worst result for the U.S. economy in the future, apart from a recession, is "stagflation," which is a state where inflation and rising unemployment lead to slow economic growth.

Although the U.S. inflation rate has dropped to 2.5%, a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the 9th showed that consumers' views on the market are generally mixed.

The survey shows that Americans' answers are that they expect their spending figures to increase by 5%, but household income will only increase by 0.1 percentage points compared to last year.

Dimon believes that the possibility of stagflation in the U.S. economy in the future is about 35%, which means the possibility of a recession is greater.

Institutions are bullish on gold to $3,000.

Recently, gold has become a highly watched variety in the global major asset classes.

According to Wind data, as of 6:40 on September 16, Beijing time, the main contract of COMEX gold futures is still at a high of $2,600 per ounce, and the spot gold in London is around $2,580 per ounce.

Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, said in the latest research report that gold is the "best hedge against the re-acceleration of inflation in 2025."

Like in 2021 and 2022, gold has provided an early warning signal for explosive inflation during these two years by becoming the best-performing asset, and it is expected that the gold price is likely to rise to $3,000 per ounce.

Michael Hartnett has been bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds since the beginning of this year.

The facts have proved his prediction to be accurate.

Since Hartnett has been bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has fallen by 100 basis points, once falling to a new low this year.

Wang Jie Chao, the chief analyst of metal new materials at CITIC Construction Investment Securities, said that the market has no dispute over the rate cut itself, but there is a difference in the magnitude of the rate cut, that is, there is a difference in the way the U.S. economy lands.

If there is a hard landing, a more aggressive rate cut is very conducive to promoting gold prices; if it only cuts rates by 25 basis points, it retains a way out for further observation of the economy, and gold is still a defensive asset in the process of the next rate cut to deal with unexpected economic data.

Therefore, in the first half of the rate cut, gold is an excellent tool to deal with uncertainty.

Nearly 20% of crude oil and 28% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down.

According to a report by CCTV News, on September 15, local time, the U.S. offshore energy regulatory agency said that nearly one-fifth of the crude oil and 28% of the natural gas in the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico were shut down due to the impact of Hurricane "Fiona."

The U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement estimated that energy producers have stopped the production of 338,690 barrels of oil and nearly 515 million cubic feet of natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico every day.

Recently, "Fiona" swept through the main offshore oil and gas producing areas of the United States and landed in Louisiana, the United States, with the intensity of a Category 2 hurricane on the 11th, and the hurricane also caused power outages in four southern states of the United States.