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US Anxiety: Economists Predict Trillions to Yuan, Appreciation Likely

The monetary policy of the United States has always been a key factor affecting the global financial market.

The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) has signaled a potential interest rate cut, which will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the global economic landscape.

As the U.S. economic data fluctuates, market expectations for a Fed rate cut continue to rise.

According to the latest data, the total U.S. debt reached $35.13 trillion in 2024, with interest payments amounting to $911.147 billion.

A rate cut would directly reduce the U.S. government's debt burden and release liquidity, potentially triggering a reconfiguration of global capital.

A rate cut might also be seen as a signal of a weakening U.S. economy, increasing market concerns about an economic recession.

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Chinese enterprises have a substantial scale of overseas investments.

According to the "2020 Statistical Bulletin of China's Outward Direct Investment," China's outward direct investment stock reached $2.58 trillion.

Against the backdrop of a potential Fed rate cut, Chinese enterprises may need to reassess their holdings of U.S. dollar assets, considering asset diversification and risk management strategies to cope with potential market volatility.

As the world's largest debtor nation, the continuous rise in the U.S. debt level has attracted widespread international attention.

A rate cut could reduce the U.S. government's borrowing costs, providing more room for fiscal policy.

However, it could also intensify market inflation expectations, challenging the international status of the U.S. dollar.

According to EY's report "2024 First Half-Year Overview of China's Overseas Investment," Chinese enterprises' investments abroad continue to climb, with their total overseas assets increasing to $7.9 trillion.

These assets are spread worldwide, covering various industries and fields from infrastructure to high technology, from energy to financial services, highlighting the growing influence of Chinese enterprises on a global scale.

U.S. economists warn that as the U.S. cuts interest rates, Chinese enterprises may sell up to $1 trillion in U.S. dollar-denominated assets, which could drive the appreciation of the Chinese yuan by 10%.

This expectation has sparked extensive discussion and attention in the market.

A rate cut would reduce the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets, prompting Chinese enterprises to reassess their overseas asset holding strategies.

If the Fed implements a rate cut, a large amount of capital is expected to flow back to China.

It is estimated that Chinese enterprises' overseas U.S. dollar assets could exceed $2 trillion, some of which may return due to the rate cut.

This capital flow will have a significant impact on the global financial market and also provide Chinese enterprises with an opportunity to reconfigure their assets.

The repatriation of U.S. dollar assets may put upward pressure on the Chinese yuan exchange rate.

Market forecasts suggest that the yuan could appreciate by 5% to 10% as a result.

This exchange rate change will affect China's exports and may also attract more foreign capital into the Chinese market.

In the vast ocean of international finance, U.S. Treasury bonds are like a giant ship, their size and influence affecting the nerves of the global economy.

In 2024, the shadow of a U.S. debt crisis once again looms over the market, and the Fed's rate cut policy seems to have become a signal light in this crisis.

The growth of U.S. Treasury bonds is backed by a series of complex economic policies and changes in the global economic environment.

From tax policies to fiscal expenditures, from economic growth to international politics, various factors are intertwined, driving the continuous rise of national debt.

In the future, as U.S. economic policies adjust and the global economic situation changes, the growth trend of national debt may slow down, but its scale will remain high.

Holders of U.S. Treasury bonds are found worldwide, but the proportion held within the United States is also significant.

From the Federal Reserve System to private investors, from state governments to ordinary households, the holders of U.S. Treasury bonds form a complex network.

The implementation of a rate cut policy will undoubtedly affect every node in this network, thus having a profound impact on the issuance, trading, and interest rates of Treasury bonds.

Historically, the interaction of monetary policies between China and the United States has been frequent, affecting fluctuations in the global financial market.

This shift signals the convergence of the monetary policy cycles of China and the U.S., providing more room for China's monetary policy to operate independently.

The potential rate cut in the U.S. will alleviate the depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan exchange rate, providing support for its stability.

The People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that China's monetary policy always prioritizes domestic considerations while balancing internal and external equilibrium.

Against the backdrop of a possible Fed rate cut, China is expected to support domestic economic growth and financial market stability through flexible and moderate monetary policy.

The economic relationship between China and the U.S. is complex and variable, involving trade, technology, finance, and other fields.

The economic interaction between the two countries not only affects bilateral relations but also has a profound impact on the global economic landscape.

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